Bitcoin Nears $65K, Market Sentiment Suggests Breakthrough Imminent
On Wednesday morning, asset prices showed an upward trend as market observers continued to focus on the U.S. economic conditions following the Federal Reserve's unexpected interest rate cut of 50 basis points, with some interpreting this as a sign that the central bank is concerned about a potential recession.
With the latest consumer confidence index coming in weak, all eyes are now on Thursday's second-quarter GDP data and Friday's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, which could provide clues for the Fed's next move.
David Morrison, Senior Market Analyst at Trade Nation, said, "Despite the weak consumer confidence data, which dropped to 98.7, well below the expected 103.9, there was still some increase yesterday." "Tomorrow will be even more interesting with weekly jobless claims, durable goods, GDP updates, and speeches from a few Federal Open Market Committee members, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell himself delivering a speech. On Friday, the core PCE will be released, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and stood at 2.6% last month, still slightly above the Fed's 2% target."
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Concerns are intensifying as the effectiveness of China's efforts to support the market through a massive stimulus program begins to wane, amid growing skepticism over whether the measures can successfully reverse the situation in the world's second-largest economy.
Morrison stated, "At the moment, investors seem to be taking advantage of the 'Goldilocks' scenario, where they can enjoy more accommodative monetary policy against a broadly positive economic backdrop."
Data provided by TradingView shows that Bitcoin (BTC) bulls attempted to break through the $65,000 resistance level again in the early hours of Wednesday morning but were halted by the bears at $64,823, who then reversed direction and dropped the King Crypto to $63,310.
Currently, BTC is trading at $63,858, up 0.93% on the 24-hour chart.
Alex Kupcsikevich, Senior Market Analyst at FxPro, noted, "The cryptocurrency market rose by 1.2% over 24 hours to reach $2.25 trillion, approaching the high point from a month ago." "New highs could attract more buyers and signal a breakout from the downtrend that has been in place for months. The sentiment index rose to 59, the highest since late July, which seems to be the best range for further increases. This is far from extreme greed, indicating that the overbought condition, fear selling has passed."
He added, "Earlier on Wednesday, Bitcoin set a monthly high but has since fallen back by about $1,000, a common pattern recently." "The first cryptocurrency has been struggling to find equilibrium near the highs of late last month and near the 200-day moving average. New data and momentum are needed to deviate prices from equilibrium. The risk-on gains from policy easing in the U.S. and China could fade in the short term."
While Kupcsikevich is looking for new data to revive Bitcoin's momentum, analysts at Altindex pointed out that "there has been a significant change in sentiment towards Bitcoin," with their sentiment data showing that "after hovering around neutral levels for several weeks, sentiment has skyrocketed to 83 on a scale of 0 to 100, indicating a very positive market sentiment."They pointed out: "This positive outlook has been echoed by industry voices such as hedge fund manager Anthony Scaramucci, who recently stated that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and increased regulatory transparency in the US cryptocurrency sector could drive Bitcoin to reach new historical highs."
Altindex also emphasized, "Google's search trends for Bitcoin are beginning to climb, suggesting a growing interest in cryptocurrencies. As more and more investors turn their attention to Bitcoin in response to the changing economic landscape, the increase in search volume could be an early sign of a new bull market cycle."
They stated: "For investors, the Federal Reserve's rate cuts signal a more favorable environment for high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies." "Historically, lower interest rates tend to drive demand for such assets because they offer higher potential returns compared to traditional investments like bonds. Bitcoin, often referred to as 'digital gold,' seems to be benefiting from this new risk appetite."
They concluded: "As the market digests the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and their broader implications, all eyes will be on Bitcoin to see if this rebound can continue." "Currently, the favorable macroeconomic backdrop and positive market sentiment suggest that Bitcoin may rise further in the near future."
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