The index continues to rise, but the volume changes too quickly. Yesterday, within half an hour of the market opening, the volume surged by 200 billion, while today, within the same timeframe, it shrank by nearly 150 billion. Although the index is still climbing and over 4,200 individual stocks are rising, the volume contraction is continuously expanding. This kind of rise can easily lead to a short-term pull-up and then a sell-off. The volume is crucial in the coming days.

Fortunately, today's leading gains are in thematic styles, with heavyweights relatively lagging behind. So, despite the significant volume contraction, the current level of volume can still support a large number of stocks rising. However, this broad-based rally does not bring a strong localized profit effect, which is not conducive to the development of the market trend.

Yesterday morning, a 38-point gap was left, but the index rose sharply and then fell significantly, partially filling the gap and then rising again. The closing increase exceeded 1%, but overall, it was a pattern of rising and then falling back, with limited gains in individual stocks. Most of them left a long upper shadow on the K-line chart, so this gap is naturally not a breakthrough gap, and it will definitely be filled in the next period.

However, the short-term market has just experienced two days of significant volume increases, and the market sentiment is still there. The market consensus is to get on board when there is a pullback, so at this time, as soon as there is a slight decline, funds will immediately enter the market. As a result, it is difficult for the gap to be filled in the short term. The morning trend also met my expectations. After partially filling the gap left by yesterday's jump in the morning, the market quickly rose, and the market remained relatively active.

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In fact, this kind of trend is also normal. After all, significant good news brings long-term confidence to investors, but the short-term pace is too fast. Most people are waiting for the opportunity to get on board when there is a pullback. However, there is no standard for the specific pullback position to get on board. Most people use the gap as a reference, thinking that they will enter the market after the gap is filled. But the short-term sentiment is still there, and as soon as there is a slight decline, there will be funds entering the market. Therefore, it is very difficult to wait for the gap to be filled before entering the market in the short term.

Since this gap is not a breakthrough gap, I firmly believe it will be filled, but some people in the short term cannot wait. So in the short term, you cannot expect too much, and you should not expect the market to immediately have a significant pullback, which is unrealistic.

I pay close attention to the changes in volume. By around 10:30 in the morning, the overall volume has shrunk by nearly 200 billion, which is still a significant contraction. However, with more than 4,200 stocks rising, it is still somewhat difficult to support with this volume. It's just that the funds are evenly distributed, and the overall increase in individual stocks is limited. If the volume continues to shrink, the number of rising stocks will have to decrease. Stocks with significant short-term gains should not be chased.

Although the overall market is still rising, it is difficult to make money in the broad-based rally under the condition of volume contraction. Moreover, the extent of volume contraction is still worrying. For stocks with significant short-term gains, it is necessary to sell high. For stocks at lower positions, hold and wait for the rise.

From the perspective of volume changes, it is not impulsive in the short term. If there is no significant decline or gap filling in the short term, it is not easy to bottom fish. The focus is on observing the changes in volume. If the volume is difficult to maintain at around 80-90 billion, you can participate when there is a pullback. If the volume continues to shrink below 80 billion, you can only wait for a significant pullback to enter the market.

When significant good news was concentrated on Tuesday, the market responded positively. Investors believe that under the policy support, A-shares will inevitably start a long bull market. However, there are also some different views on the discourse of the bull market. Let's take a look at what they are:1. Pi Haizhou: The creation of new policy tools by the central bank will not trigger a bull market in A-shares, and issues such as shareholder dilution still weigh on the A-share market.

Pi Haizhou believes that although the central bank's creation of new monetary policy tools to support the stable development of the stock market is of great significance to the A-share market, it is unrealistic to trigger a bull market in A-shares. After all, the many practical problems faced by the A-share market have not been resolved as a result. For example, the issue of shareholder dilution is a huge mountain pressing on the A-share market. Even if the central bank can create more monetary policies to allow more funds to flow into the stock market, it is not enough for shareholders to cash out through dilution.

Therefore, for the A-share market to develop healthily, and even to embark on a bull market, it is not only necessary to receive support from the capital side, but also crucial to solve some important issues. For the current market situation, it can be temporarily regarded as a rebound from an oversold market. To evolve into a bull market, further policy progress is needed.

To be honest, I agree with Pi Haizhou's view that for a long time, the dilution by major shareholders can be said to be the biggest factor in crushing the market. The purpose of going public is to allow major shareholders to cash out and achieve individual financial growth. To achieve a counter-attack in life. There are probably not many enterprises that really want to go public to grow and become stronger. Over the years, a large number of enterprises have taken away a large amount of wealth from the market, and the vast number of investors have suffered heavy losses, which has led to the market's current situation.

Since the second half of last year, the new regulations on dilution have been continuously upgraded, and there are very few companies that really meet the requirements for dilution. I basically make a statistical data on the increase and decrease of listed companies every week. Before last June, almost more than a hundred companies issued dilution announcements every week. After the release of the most stringent dilution regulations in history last year, the number of dilutions has indeed decreased a lot. And the China Securities Regulatory Commission continues to upgrade the dilution regulations. It is difficult for us ordinary investors to understand which companies meet the new dilution regulations and can be diluted, but there is an undeniable fact that many individual stocks will be diluted by major shareholders as soon as they rise sharply in the short term. Although I am not clear about how many listed companies currently meet the dilution regulations, I have a clear feeling that the number of companies diluted every week is not small.

If in the next step, many individual stocks really rise significantly, there will definitely be many major shareholders who actively dilute. The more you rise, the more they dilute. Although there are also many major shareholders who promise not to dilute in the future, there are also many increases. You cannot guarantee that they will not change their minds after the rise.

Major shareholder dilution is undoubtedly a fundamental problem. Relying on the central bank's trillions of funds to support the bottom naturally cannot offset a large amount of dilution and cashing out. There are also a large number of repurchases and increases. Once the price goes up, they cash out profits at a high price, which is also a big problem.

How to further standardize dilution, repurchase and increase, in order to ensure a slow bull market, otherwise, there are too many pests in this market.

2. Xiang Songzu: Whether A-shares can return to a bull market depends not only on the central bank's support.

Economist Xiang Songzu said that the new policies introduced by the central bank aim to stabilize the stock market, provide liquidity support, encourage institutions such as securities, funds, and insurance to invest in the stock market, and support listed companies and their major shareholders to repurchase stocks. These measures help to enhance market confidence and promote the stable development of the stock market. However, whether the stock market can continue to strengthen also needs to consider multiple factors, including the performance of listed companies and the overall market environment. The central bank's policy has provided important support for the market, but the long-term healthy development of the capital market still depends on deeper structural reforms.Xiang Songzuo's perspective is equally worthy of our study. This market cannot rely solely on stimulus; stimulus can only be temporary and is merely to help the market regain its self-sustaining function, providing a boost at critical moments, but ultimately, it must walk on its own. In the end, the market depends on the listed companies themselves. If the listed companies lack self-sustaining capabilities, they cannot rely on transfusions for long.

The views of these two experts are indeed very realistic. It is essential to have a long-term vision and maintain rationality, without being blinded by short-term policy stimuli. Although there is confidence in the medium to long term, it still requires a considerable amount of time to truly emerge from difficulties in the short term. In the short term, it is more advisable to maintain a low-absorption strategy rather than chasing highs.