China's five-year government bond yield hit a historical low, local debt issuance accelerates, setting a new high in nearly a year. The IMF states that China's subsidy policies have a limited impact on foreign trade. The proportion of state capital in China's private equity market has significantly increased. China has a strong redistributive effect on education and medical expenses. Russia settles with China through Kazakhstan. US new home sales decline again in August, with prices falling for seven consecutive months. Market volatility before the US election is affected by the employment report. The gap between the US service industry and manufacturing PMI has expanded to a two-year high. AI startup venture capital investment has reached a historical high, and tech giants are competing for AI talent, with recruitment demand significantly increasing. Kamala Harris and Trump's fiscal deficit policy comparison analysis. The Riksbank has cut interest rates consecutively and may do so again in the future. The UK's inequality level has dropped to a 12-year low. South Korean consumer confidence has dropped to a four-month low. S&P confirms Australia's "AAA" credit rating, with a stable outlook. India's Nifty 200 stock buy rating has reached a ten-year low.

01 China

1. China's five-year government bond yield fell by nearly 5 basis points on Wednesday to 1.68%, setting a historical low. Except for August this year, the five-year government bond has achieved net capital inflow every month. Bank of America pointed out that China's five-year bonds are at a "sweet spot" due to lower central bank intervention risks, and it is expected that future yields will further drop to 1.35%.

2. As China starts a new round of loose monetary policy, the issuance of local debt is also accelerating. Data from the FinGraph team shows that the scale of local debt issuance in September was nearly 1.28 trillion yuan, setting a new high for two consecutive months and reaching the highest point since October last year.

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3. The IMF's analysis shows that in the international trade spillover effects of related industries, China's subsidy policies have indeed played a role. After implementing subsidies, the export of China's subsidized products is 1% higher than that of non-subsidized products. The import of subsidized products is lower, indicating some domestic substitution. However, the estimated impact is not significant, indicating that the impact of industrial subsidy policies on the overall external balance is limited.

4. Since 2021, China's private equity investment market has cooled down, and state capital is filling this gap. In 2023, the proportion of government-guided funds has increased from 30% in 2020 to 41%, and if the investment of state-owned enterprises is included, this proportion is as high as 78%.

5. According to research, China's public expenditure on education and healthcare has a strong redistributive effect. It has reduced China's inequality level by about 7 percentage points, bringing China's Gini coefficient from 51.6 to 44.2.

6. Due to US sanctions making payments between Russia and China complicated, Russian banks and companies have turned to settlements through Kazakhstan, driving a significant increase in the trading volume of renminbi and rubles on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange. According to data from the National Bank of Kazakhstan, from June to August, the monthly average trading volume of tenge against renminbi and rubles increased to 893 million yuan ($127 million) and 86 billion rubles ($925 million), respectively.

7. The amount of crude oil in China's maritime transportation is at its lowest level since at least 2021.

02 United States

1. US new single-family home sales in August fell by 4.7% to an annual rate of 716,000 units, with analysts expecting 700,000 units. At the same time, the median selling price fell by 4.6% year-on-year to $420,600, marking the seventh consecutive month of year-on-year decline in the median selling price, extending the longest consecutive decline since 2009.3. This year, 11 new companies have been added to the S&P 500 Index. The chart below shows a list of potential companies that may be included in the S&P 500 Index next. To join the S&P 500, candidate companies must meet certain requirements, including a minimum market capitalization of $18 billion, profitability standards, and being registered in the United States.

3. The options market indicates that the volatility of the S&P 500 Index from now until the U.S. elections is mainly influenced by two Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reports.

4. The gap between the U.S. services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and the manufacturing PMI continues to widen, currently reaching a difference of 8.4 points, the highest level since at least September 2021.

5. So far this year, venture capital investment in artificial intelligence (AI) startups has reached $64.1 billion, approaching the peak of the investment boom in 2021. The share of AI companies in the total venture capital investment has also set a historical record, accounting for about one-third of the total investment.

6. Despite recent large-scale layoffs in Silicon Valley, tech giants continue to invest heavily in securing top artificial intelligence talent. In July, new job postings related to artificial intelligence increased by nearly 50% year-over-year, while overall tech job postings have declined.

7. According to data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the number of insured banks in the United States has decreased from about 10,000 in the mid-1990s to about 4,500 in 2022, a drop of more than 50%. This consolidation has made the banking industry more concentrated, but has raised regulatory and competitive concerns. The U.S. Department of Justice recently withdrew the 1995 bank merger guidelines and plans to implement stricter scrutiny of bank mergers.

03 Europe

1. According to the European Central Bank, the return on equity of the 110 banks directly supervised by it reached 10.11% in the second quarter, the highest value since the data was published. The increase in net interest income is the main reason for the improvement in profitability, indicating that previous interest rate hikes have significantly boosted the banking industry. However, as the European Central Bank has reduced the key interest rate from 4% to 3.5% since June, the growth of banks' interest income may gradually slow down.

2. France's consumer confidence index in September rose to 95.1, higher than the previous month's 92.5 and also exceeded the market expectation of 92. This is the highest level since February 2022, but still below the long-term average of 100.

3. The Swedish central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, in line with market expectations, marking the second consecutive rate cut following the one in August. The central bank hinted that if inflation and economic prospects remain unchanged, there may be further rate cuts at the remaining two monetary policy meetings this year, with one of them possibly cutting by 50 basis points.04 United Kingdom

Data from the Office for National Statistics in the UK shows that, influenced by inflation and taxation, the level of inequality in the UK experienced its largest decline in 12 years in 2023. The disposable income of the wealthiest 20% of households decreased, while lower-income families benefited from government support for living costs. Overall inequality fell from 35.5% in 2022 to 33.1%. Nonetheless, the financial situation of affluent families remains significantly better than that of impoverished families, with an income gap of approximately six times. Since the pandemic, the income of affluent families has decreased by 4.3%, while that of impoverished families has decreased by 2.4%.

05 Asia-Pacific

1. Since 2014, approximately 1,000 companies have gone public in Japan, with nearly 90% of IPOs raising less than $100 million. However, the Japanese market is expected to see larger-scale IPOs in the coming months, potentially breaking this trend. Tokyo Metro plans to raise about $2.2 billion through an IPO, and Rigaku Holdings, a scientific instrument company, is expected to raise about $1 billion. This will invigorate the Japanese IPO market, which has been dominated by small listings. This year, Japanese stock sales have raised $1.4 billion.

2. South Korea's composite consumer confidence index for September fell to 100.0, a decrease of 0.8 points from August, marking a four-month low. Expectations for future household income remained at 98, while expectations for future household expenditure fell to 108 (from 109 in August). Confidence in the current domestic economic situation dropped to 71 (from 73 in August), and expectations for future economic prospects also fell to 79 (from 81 in August).

3. S&P Global Ratings confirmed Australia's "AAA" long-term sovereign credit rating and "A-1+" short-term credit rating, with a stable outlook. S&P Global stated that the ratings are supported by the country's strong fiscal position, flexible monetary policy, and diversified economy. Although the government deficit is expected to widen to 1.5%-1.7% of GDP over the next two years, net debt is still expected to remain below 30% of GDP.

06 Emerging/Frontier Markets

1. In India's NSE Nifty 200 index, the number of stocks with a consensus buy rating stands at 61, the lowest in at least a decade. Currently, the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of the Nifty 200 index is around 24 times, higher than the average of about 19 times over the past 10 years.

2. Many countries in Latin America and the Caribbean rely on remittances sent back to their countries by citizens working abroad, especially those with limited exports or facing economic difficulties. Remittances account for about 30% of the GDP in countries such as Nicaragua and Honduras.

07 GlobalThe Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has slightly raised its global economic growth forecast for 2024 by 0.1 percentage point to 3.2%, the same as the forecast for 2025. The growth expectation for the United States in 2024 remains at 2.6%, but for 2025 it has been revised down from 1.8% to 1.6%. The growth expectations for the Eurozone for the current and next year are 0.7% and 1.3%, respectively. China's growth expectations remain unchanged at 4.9% and 4.5%.

08 Commodities and Energy

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predicts in its annual long-term outlook report that global oil demand will continue to grow until the middle of the century, with daily consumption increasing to 120.1 million barrels by 2050, an increase of about 18%. This forecast starkly contrasts with the views of institutions such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) and BP, which believe that global oil demand will stop growing within the next decade due to the proliferation of electric vehicles and renewable energy. OPEC's forecast has been warned by scientists as a climate disaster; if oil demand continues to grow, global temperatures could rise by 2.5 to 3 degrees Celsius, which would not align with the international goal of keeping the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

09 ESG

According to data from Morningstar Direct, funds tracking biodiversity-related companies have performed exceptionally well this year, with total assets exceeding $3.9 billion, growing by approximately 45% over the past 12 months. The average return rate of these funds significantly outperforms the performance of funds related to renewable energy, carbon emissions, and electric vehicles.