A-Share Strategy: Surge Followed by Spike in CITIC Short Positions; New State Council Directives
Focus on daily practical operations in the A-share market to ensure retail investors don't lose their way! If you are not a long-term investor and want to survive in the A-share market, you must understand that a meticulous layout plan can only provide a good start, and strict trading discipline is what leads to fruitful results!
Market Trend Analysis: On Wednesday, the A-share market opened significantly higher due to overnight favorable stimuli, and it surged sharply in the morning. However, due to technical overbought conditions, the market eventually experienced a pullback. Currently, the market is still deviating upwards from the 5-day moving average, leaving an overbought gap, indicating that there may be further fluctuations in the coming days until the 5-day moving average catches up. The trading volume has expanded to 1.1 trillion, setting a record in the past six months.
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Market Surface Tracking: On Wednesday, there were more rising than falling stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, with 4,100 stocks rising and 1,000 falling, making the market's profit effect more apparent. Looking at the sectoral gains and losses, the performance of big finance remains good, with diversified finance leading the market, and insurance, securities, and banks have all shown consecutive strength, but they are all significantly overbought and deviating from the 5-day moving average. During the trading day, the AI application end exerted force, with sectors such as SORA concept, culture and media, film and television, and AI corpus, which have not moved much in the past six months, experiencing a catch-up rise. On the list of declines, small metals, liquor, and coal, which were at the forefront on Tuesday, performed relatively weakly and were the main force suppressing the market. It is not difficult to see that the rotation of market hotspots is still fast, which is a manifestation of the absence of a main hotspot.
News Tracking: 1. The "State Council's Opinions on Implementing an Employment Priority Strategy to Promote High-Quality and Full Employment" were released on September 25. The opinion proposes to take the risk of not occurring large-scale unemployment as the bottom line and continuously promote the effective improvement of employment quality and the reasonable growth of quantity. 2. The short position data of CITIC Futures' seats have once again attracted attention. There is news mentioning, "CITIC Futures net bought 7,166 short positions today, and the total net short position of CITIC Futures is -85,634 hands," in response to this, there are again opinions that CITIC Futures is shorting the market, and such misunderstandings are not the first time.
Market Capital Flow: Overall, on Wednesday, the willingness of institutions to chase high was significantly reduced, and selling pressure was somewhat released. However, speculative capital was quite active on Wednesday, with overall buying higher than on Tuesday. Looking at the sectoral capital flow, there is still no sector where the main institutions have concentrated on increasing their positions, indicating that the market still lacks a main hotspot. Speculative capital has turned to diversified finance, and some funds are still lingering on Huawei's Hongmeng. For other data, see "A-Share Explosive News" tomorrow morning.
[Operation Review]
Clearing Operations: Dafu Technology 300134, folding screen, pulled up during the trading day for profit-taking and settlement.
Position Establishment Operations: Wand Software 603189, Huawei Hongmeng, the whole day was narrowly fluctuating, but basically stable above the 5-day moving average, meeting the entry condition. Tianyuan Dico 300047, Huawei Hongmeng, also met the entry condition, but was abandoned in favor of the other. Mike Audi 300341, state-owned enterprise reform + equity transfer, the whole day surged and fell back, but remained stable above the 5-day moving average, meeting the entry condition.
Position Adjustment Results: On Wednesday, the yield slightly increased. The performance of the three held stocks was differentiated, with only Dafu Technology 300134 strengthening with the market, experiencing an unusual lift in the afternoon, and choosing to take profits at a high point. All three target stocks met the entry conditions, and Wand Software 603189 and Mike Audi 300341 were opened as planned, but both experienced a small floating loss. After adjusting the position, the position reached 40%, covering four sectors: Huawei Hongmeng, semiconductors, equity transfer weakness, and solid-state batteries.【Core Hotspots and Stock Pool Adjustments】
Newly added hotspot: Photolithography machines.
No hotspots removed.
Newly added stocks: Jinghua Laser 603607, photolithography machines. (Remember! The news and capital conditions of the newly added stocks have met the tracking requirements, but further opportunities need to be sought on the technical side.)
Removed stocks: Visionox 002387, folding screens, weak trading.
【Core Hotspots and Stock Tracking】
Recent main hotspots (involving a large number of institutions): Photolithography machines, have been moving up in small steps, and the current sector index has stepped on all moving averages, entering an upward channel with the market. Solid-state batteries, rebounded quickly with the market in the short term, have broken through all moving averages and entered a strong area, but at the same time, they are also significantly overbought above the 5-day moving average. Folding screens, the trend has been almost the same as solid-state batteries, and in the recent trading days, they have moved up with the market, breaking through all moving averages and entering a strong area in the short term. However, in the medium term, they are still within a wide range and have not made a directional choice.
Recent non-main hotspots (involving a small number of institutions or no institutions): Mergers and acquisitions, have been strengthening continuously and had a significant gap-up opening on Wednesday. They are now significantly overbought above the 5-day moving average. The probability of a pullback is increasing, and it remains to be seen whether the 5-day moving average can provide support during the pullback, allowing the sector not to break the trend. HarmonyOS concept, the recent trend is similar to mergers and acquisitions, with a short-term 5-day moving average upward, and it has now entered a strong area. However, it is also significantly overbought above the 5-day moving average, and short-term fluctuations may occur at any time. Insurance, securities, have closed with long red lines for two consecutive days, and technically have completed the transition from weak to strong. However, overbought has also intensified, and the pressure of short-term fluctuations is increasing.
Strong area stocks: Hailanxun, Mac Audi, Jinghua Laser, Wavelength Optoelectronics, Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, Tongfei Shares, Chengmai Technology, Tianyuan Dico, Wand Software, Del Shares, Nand Power, Chuanyi Technology. The above stocks are operating above the 5-day moving average and have not moved far away from the 5-day moving average to form technical overbought, and are in a strong channel with a stable trend.
Breakout area stocks: Oriental Zhongke, Century Dingli, Penghui Energy, Dafu Technology, Jingyan Technology. The above stocks are operating between the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average. As long as the 10-day moving average is not broken, they will not weaken. Re-entering the 5-day moving average can make them strong!Defensive stocks: Skyworth Digital, Kesheng Technology. The aforementioned stocks have adjusted to key short-term support levels such as the 20-day, 30-day, or 60-day moving averages. If these key moving averages are not broken, there is a potential for a short-term rebound trend!
【Strategy and Plan】
Position Management: On Wednesday, the A-share market experienced a significant gap-up rally, which is crucial as it broke through the 60-day moving average, a medium-term pressure point, placing all moving averages beneath it. The market has now entered a strong zone. When the market crosses the fluctuation channel into a strong zone, the position limit should be controlled below 70%. Currently, only 40% of the position is held, so there is room to open new positions on Thursday. Considering the distribution of the held stock sectors, as well as the recent main and non-main hotspots' performance, the direction for adding positions can be chosen from photolithography machines and folding screens.
Tracking Targets: Zhangjiang High-Tech 600895, photolithography machine, below 1 point, if the 5-day moving average is not broken, allocate 10%. Jinghua Laser 603607, photolithography machine, in a downtrend, if the 5-day moving average is not broken, allocate 10%. If both stocks meet the conditions, choose one out of the two.
Holding Strategy: Wangda Software 603189, Huawei HarmonyOS, hold based on the 10-day moving average. Mac Audi 300341, state-owned enterprise reform + equity transfer, hold based on the 10-day moving average. Penghui Energy 300438, solid-state battery, hold based on the 30-day moving average. Jiangbo Long 301308, high performance growth + memory chip, medium-term holding. (For held stocks that experience a significant increase but do not hit the upper limit, consider reducing positions or taking profits.)
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