Sept 26 A-Share Scoop: Historic Changes Looming with Policy Gifts from Xinhua
Focus on the daily blockbuster news in the A-share market! Before diving into the main text, you must understand one thing: not many main force funds are foolish enough to straighten the stock price to the daily limit as soon as the good news is released, so please be patient, let the good news fly for a while, and you may find different investment opportunities!
**Domestic and International Financial News / A-share Market Outlook**
Juicy News One: Witnessing History! The First 300 Billion Yuan Stock ETF is Born, the Broad-based Era Has Arrived!
Event: The latest data shows that as of September 24th, the total scale of Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF has exceeded 311.3 billion yuan, thus becoming the first stock ETF product in China's history to exceed the 300 billion yuan mark.
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Commentary: At the recently held State Council Information Office meeting, the central bank governor revealed that a stabilization fund is under study, while the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) stated that it would vigorously promote the innovation of broad-based ETFs and other index-based products. The industry generally believes that the scale of stock ETFs will grow rapidly, indicating that the era of passive investment is accelerating. Jing Yang also noticed that within this year, the scale of 10 broad-based products has grown by nearly 720 billion yuan, which is a high-speed growth that stock funds rarely see in the past few years. At the same time, the scale of bond funds shrank by 450 billion yuan last month, it seems that a lot of funds have been redeeming bond funds and investing in stock ETFs in the past one or two months.
In Jing Yang's view, the broad-based era is coming, which will greatly change the future pattern of the A-share market. Broad-based funds mainly invest passively in indices, so they will buy a large number of constituent stocks, which will undoubtedly intensify the internal differentiation of the entire market, allowing mid-to-large-cap weighted stocks to continue to strengthen, while small-cap stocks will be further marginalized. In the long run, the expansion of broad-based funds is beneficial to the strength of the index, but as weighted stocks gradually rise, risks will also accumulate. For us retail investors, in the future, we need to focus more on researching weighted stocks, especially those with very stable trends and moving average systems showing a bullish arrangement.
Market Forecast: In the short term, after the market has risen for two consecutive days, yesterday's gap-up opening left a significant overbought gap, which ultimately led to the market's rise and fall. In the next few trading days, the market will either fluctuate horizontally waiting for the 5-day line to catch up, or actively retreat to seek support from the 5-day line. Although the pace of the rise will slow down, the risk of turning around and weakening again is not significant.
**Industry/Sector/Concept News Review**
Juicy News Two: Hunan Deploys to Strengthen the Market Value Management of Listed Companies, the Break-even Group "Moves First at the Wind's News"!
Event: The latest news shows that Hunan Province will hold a provincial-wide listed companies' market value management work teleconference this morning to study and deploy the strengthening of listed companies' market value management work and accelerate the high-quality development of listed companies in the province. It has been learned from the media that representatives from Zoomlion, Blue Technology, Valin Steel, and other companies will speak at the above-mentioned conference.Commentary: The news is favorable for the net-breaking stock sector. At the beginning of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) first mentioned that market value management would be linked to the performance of central and state-owned enterprise (SOE) executives. However, after more than half a year, only some of the major central SOEs have clear market value management plans, and many local state-owned assets are still in a wait-and-see mode. Recently, the State Council Information Office has released several heavyweight benefits in succession, which may accelerate the local state-owned assets to advance market value management. The morning's televised conference in Hunan could become the starting gun for the accelerated implementation of the local state-owned asset market value management system! In the A-share market, the stocks that benefit first from the market value management plan are those that are severely undervalued, with net-breaking stocks being the first to be affected! However, from the trading data, there has been no significant involvement of institutions and hot money in net-breaking stocks recently.
Hype Cycle: Medium-term
Explosion Strength: ★★★
Trading Strategy: The market value management plan may become a focus of attention in the capital market for a period of time in the future. After Hunan, other regions should gradually follow suit. Therefore, if institutions or hot money are found to be involved in net-breaking stocks from trading data in the near future, it is possible to consider a light position for a quick attack.
Related Companies: Zoomlion (000157), Lens Technology (300433), Valin Steel (000932), Changsha Bank (601577), etc.
Juicy News Three: Huawei Mate 70 is coming! The entire machine has been mass-produced and is expected to be the first to carry a pure-blood HarmonyOS!
Event: The latest news from the supply chain, the Huawei Mate 70 series has been mass-produced, which was previously scheduled to be launched in November. Parts are already being supplied, and it is possible that it could be as early as the end of October, as many phone units have already been produced.
Commentary: The news is favorable for Huawei's mobile phone supply chain. In June this year, Huawei's Executive Director and Chairman of the BG, Yu Chengdong, revealed that the Huawei Mate 70 series of mobile phones will be released in the fourth quarter of this year, with the first release of the HarmonyOS NEXT official version, that is, the pure-blood HarmonyOS system. As the next-generation flagship mobile phone, the Huawei Mate 70 is also expected to exceed sales expectations with the support of "pure-blood" HarmonyOS! In the A-share market, the consumer electronics sector has been relatively active for a while, but there have been signs of loose chips recently. Huawei's mobile phone supply chain is also within the consumer electronics theme, so whether this heavyweight benefit can stimulate the attention of major institutions or hot money is the key to whether the sector can quickly warm up in the short term!
Hype Cycle: Short-term
Explosion Strength: ★★★Trading Strategy: Since the main institutional investors have only recently exited the consumer electronics sector, it will be challenging for them to quickly return in the short term. Strategically, as long as there are no signs of significant increases in positions by major institutions or speculative capital in the trading data, the primary approach should be to wait and observe rather than actively follow.
Related Companies:弘信电子 (300657), 飞荣达 (300602), 福日电子 (600203), 利和兴 (301013), etc.
Breaking News Four: National News Office's Themed Press Conference Releases Positive News - China's Nuclear Power Has Entered the World's Advanced Ranks!
Event: Yesterday, the State Council Information Office held a series of themed press conferences on "Promoting High-Quality Development". At the conference, Dong Bao Tong, the director of the National Nuclear Safety Administration, stated that China's nuclear power technology has achieved an upgrade from the second generation to the third generation, with the fourth generation technology gradually being applied. Overall, China's nuclear power has entered the world's advanced ranks. Concurrently, Microsoft Corporation in the United States announced an agreement with Constellation Energy to purchase electricity from the Three Mile Island Nuclear Power Station for the next 20 years, indicating that the Three Mile Island Nuclear Power Station in the United States is about to be restarted!
Commentary: Both pieces of news are positive for the nuclear power sector. Recently, there has been a concentration of positive news for the nuclear power sector. Yesterday's news also mentioned in the [A-Share Breaking News] that "14 global financial giants have expressed their support for nuclear energy, and the industry has sounded the horn of revival!" Today, the sector has welcomed two more significant pieces of positive news. Data shows that there are currently 439 nuclear power stations in operation worldwide, with a generating capacity of 395GWe. According to industry forecasts, by 2050, the global nuclear power generation will reach 890GWe. This means that over the next 20 years, the growth rate of global nuclear power will continue to rise. In the A-share market, the nuclear power industry has always been slow in growth due to risk issues, and thus has not attracted much attention from major institutions. However, precisely because of this, the performance of listed companies in the nuclear power sector is generally more stable, and their valuation levels are also relatively low.
Speculation Cycle: Long-term
Explosion Strength: ★★★
Trading Strategy: Unlike thermal power, nuclear power has more stable performance and lower valuations, making it less suitable for short-term investment with significant explosive power. However, it is more suitable for long-term investment. Patient investors can consider it; otherwise, it is better to wait and observe.
Related Companies: 沃尔核材 (002130), 江苏神通 (002438), 中核科技 (000777), 大连重工 (002204), etc.
Breaking News Five: The Giant Unleashes a Big Move, OpenAI's Version of "Her" Officially Launched!Event: Yesterday, the artificial intelligence (AI) giant OpenAI officially launched advanced voice features, which will be rolled out to all Plus and team users of ChatGPT this week. Users will gradually receive notifications that they can use this feature.
Commentary: This news is beneficial to the multimodal AI sector. Recently, there have been many favorable developments related to AI large models. The advanced voice features of global giant OpenAI have added custom instructions and memory functions, allowing users to set accents, tones, speaking speeds, custom greetings, and set home addresses, etc. ChatGPT will also conduct dialogues based on these settings. In addition, Baidu's Qianfan large model platform and ByteDance's AI videos have also received relevant favorable news. In response, some research institutions predict that the market size of China's AI large models will reach 14.7 billion in 2023, and the industry market size will break through 100 billion yuan by 2028. The compound growth rate over 5 years will exceed 50%! In the A-share market, after the first quarter of this year, the market's enthusiasm for AI themes has noticeably cooled down, which is directly related to OpenAI's inability to break away from the loss dilemma. According to Jingyang's observation, in the past month, only one company in the entire AI theme, the CPO branch, has been significantly bought by institutional seats. This shows that the willingness of institutions to reflow is not strong.
Hype cycle: medium line
Explosive power: ★★★
Trading strategy: There is no doubt about the future growth space of artificial intelligence, but for the capital market, investors are more concerned about how companies can successfully monetize? Before that, as long as there is no significant sign of institutional or hot money reflow, we retail investors should mainly watch and not easily follow up to open positions.
Related companies: Wanxing Technology (300624), Jiecheng Shares (300182), Blue Focus (300058), Zhongguang Tianze (603721), etc.
[Dragon and Tiger List/Hot Money/Institutional Fund Position Adjustment Analysis]
Key targets of hot money big shots: Ningbo Sangtian Road: Net purchase of PetroChina Capital (Diversified Finance) 42.7008 million, Yin Zhijie (Diversified Finance) 57.2922 million, Huafeng Chaofibers (Diversified Finance) 56.6993 million; Shangtang Road: Net purchase of Lingnan Shares (Environmental Governance) 18.4317 million; Stock Trading and Family Support: Net purchase of Guohua Network Security (Information Creation + Internet of Vehicles) 11.3944 million, Faben Information (Hongmeng + Internet of Vehicles) 17.3952 million; Fang Xinxia: Net purchase of China Communications Real Estate (Real Estate) 22.8523 million; Happy Coast: Net purchase of Changshan Beiming (Hongmeng) 104 million.
Institutional fund single-day purchase (10 million +): PetroChina Capital 000617, Diversified Finance, 2 institutions bought and 1 institution sold, institutional net purchase of 21.6215 million, which is the most institutional net purchase of individual stocks yesterday.
Institutional fund continuous purchase within 10 days (10 million +): None.Institutional Capital Overall Trend Analysis: In the previous trading day, three stocks with institutional net purchases exceeding 10 million yuan were identified, while six stocks with institutional net sales exceeding 10 million yuan were noted. On Wednesday, the market experienced a rise followed by a retreat, with increased trading volume at the overbought level. Concurrently, there was a slight contraction in buy orders from institutional seats and a minor release in sell orders, indicating a lack of strong willingness among institutions to chase highs at the current position, leading to a small net outflow of institutional capital.
Institutional Capital Sector Flow Analysis: Looking at the sectoral capital flows, regarding the main hotspots (recent institutional focus), none of the old main lines saw increased positions by institutional seats, while in the new hotspots, photolithography machines received a small amount of additional purchases from institutional seats.
In terms of non-main hotspots (recent institutional minor participation directions), folding screens, commercial aerospace, and communication equipment were slightly increased by the main forces; software, energy equipment, and recently active restructuring saw moderate reductions by institutional seats, while white liquor, information creation, internet of vehicles, and securities that had surged for two consecutive days were slightly reduced by the main forces. On Wednesday, the diversified finance sector, which led the market, showed internal differentiation among the main forces, with purchases and sales being roughly equal.
Overall, on Wednesday, the willingness of institutions to chase highs was significantly reduced, and sell orders were somewhat released. However, speculative capital was quite active on Wednesday, with overall purchases higher than on Tuesday. From the perspective of sectoral capital flows, no sector saw concentrated additional purchases by the main institutions, indicating that the market still lacks a main hotspot. Speculative capital turned to diversified finance, and some funds remained in Huawei's Hongmeng.
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