The current international situation is intricate and complex. According to the assessment in the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, we are facing a "major change in the world that has not been seen in a hundred years." One of the biggest changes the world is currently facing is the end of the dividends of globalization and the rise of anti-globalization trends.

Looking back at the development of globalization over the past decade, a significant turning point was the escalation and spread of Sino-American trade frictions that began in 2018. After the United States increased tariffs on Chinese imports, the market once believed that China's export trade scale would significantly decrease in the future, thereby dragging down economic growth, and the A-share market also hit a phased low point in 2018.

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However, looking back, many worries did not come true and were more like worrying about the sky falling. As of 2023, China's export scale has continued to grow, far exceeding the level of 2018, and its share of global trade has reached a historical high. China's economic growth rate is at the forefront among major economies, continuing to contribute to global economic growth.

It is necessary for us to think about whether the trend of anti-globalization is really detrimental to China? Does China have new development opportunities in the era of anti-globalization? According to our research, the conclusion is positive and optimistic: In the era of anti-globalization, China is facing both opportunities and challenges, but the world cannot do without Chinese goods and manufacturing. For China as a whole, opportunities outweigh challenges, and it will bring a series of related investment opportunities, which we should pay long-term attention to as an investment direction. The following points are listed as a reference.

After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, European and American goods withdrew from Russia, and the share of Chinese goods in the Russian market rapidly increased. The Russian and Commonwealth of Independent States markets have become an important growth point for many Chinese enterprises in the past two or three years. The original intention of European and American sanctions against Russia was to restrict Russia's supply chain, thereby causing social problems such as material shortages in Russia. However, according to recent reports by some journalists, the shelves of Russian supermarkets are well-supplied, but they have changed from European and American brands to Chinese brands. Chinese light industrial products represented by food have quickly seized the Russian market and achieved a huge breakthrough in 1-2 years. Russia's local automotive industry is weak. After European and American automotive brands such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Audi withdrew, Chinese automotive exports to Russia increased significantly. Currently, nine out of the top ten models sold in Russia are Chinese brands. Similar stories have occurred in other industries such as construction machinery, heavy trucks, and engineering contracting in Russia.

The United States' control over the Middle East has weakened, especially after the Israel-Palestine conflict. The United States' military support for Israel has attracted opposition from the Islamic world. China's diplomatic relations with Middle Eastern countries continue to improve, driving a series of development opportunities for related industries. At present, the scale of cooperation between China and Middle Eastern countries represented by Saudi Arabia continues to increase. On the one hand, it is "going out." Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries face long-term energy transformation pressures and are currently investing in large-scale infrastructure construction and industrialization. Chinese companies have obvious advantages in these areas and have obtained a large number of orders. On the other hand, it is "bringing in." The scale of Saudi investment in China is also continuously increasing, including industrial investments represented by petroleum refining projects and financial investments in some leading companies in the chemical industry of A-shares. In the long run, the Middle East is gradually moving from a single dependence on the United States to diplomatic diversification, from a single energy extraction to industrial diversification. China has the world's strongest infrastructure and industrial construction capabilities and will undoubtedly benefit in the long run.

After the United States imposed additional tariffs on Chinese goods, it not only did not significantly affect the competitiveness of Chinese goods but also gave birth to a large amount of transshipment trade and overseas factory investments by Chinese companies, deepening China's cooperation with a group of third-world countries and creating opportunities for a group of excellent Chinese companies to "go out." The continuous transfer of light industrial products represented by textiles and garments to Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, and the transfer of high-end manufacturing represented by automotive parts to Latin American countries such as Mexico, are all clear industrial trends at present. However, compared with China, these countries have relatively weak industrial foundations, insufficient infrastructure investment, and do not have a complete upstream and downstream supply chain. Even if they build factories locally, they are more engaged in relatively simple assembly links, and a large number of core equipment and components still need to be imported from China. Most of the high-value links in the industry chain are still in the hands of Chinese companies. For Chinese companies, transferring some low-end manufacturing links to third-world countries, the local industry will focus more on industrial upgrading in the future, grasping the high-value links in the industry chain, which also meets the development requirements of new quality productive forces.

Under the background of frequent trade frictions and local conflicts, the global transportation industry has encountered challenges, especially the mainstream of international trade - the maritime industry has ushered in prosperity in the crisis, and a group of Chinese companies have fully benefited. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe no longer purchases Russian oil and natural gas, and the crude oil trade route is reconstructed, with the transportation distance significantly increased. The demand for Russian crude oil transportation to the Far East and the demand for American LNG transportation to Europe have both increased rapidly, and the upward trend of the medium-term prosperity of the oil transportation industry has been greatly improved. After the Israel-Palestine conflict, the Houthi armed forces in Yemen attacked merchant ships in the Red Sea, and a large number of container ships detoured around the Cape of Good Hope in Africa. The decline in effective capacity quickly digested excess capacity and caused a series of problems such as port congestion and container shortages. The container transportation industry ushered in a new round of prosperity after a short period of downturn. In addition, in the current bottleneck link of the maritime industry - the shipbuilding industry, after a long-term loss, overseas shipbuilding companies such as Japan and South Korea have successively withdrawn. At present, Chinese companies occupy most of the market share, and the production capacity is in short supply. The shipyard is generally scheduled until 2027-2028, and the price of new ships has steadily increased. Therefore, Chinese companies are expected to fully enjoy the prosperity of this round of the maritime industry.

In summary, we believe that the current process of globalization has indeed encountered phased challenges, with the rise of overseas right-wing forces and the strengthening of trade protectionism, making anti-globalization a phased political theme. However, for China, there are both challenges and opportunities. Chinese manufacturing companies have irreplaceable advantages in cost, technology, technology, and service, and the efficiency of hardworking Chinese workers is obviously higher than overseas. They can find new development opportunities in every crisis. We should be optimistic about the long-term development of a group of excellent Chinese companies and actively look for investment opportunities among them.